CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHINA: HEGEMONY IN WATER RESOURCES

Abstract

Climate change is humanity’s main challenge. The redistribution of the patterns of rainfall and temperature, and the consequent chang- es in the availability of water resources stand out among its effects. There’s a complex situation in Asia, since a sharp decrease in rainfall is expected across the southern part of the continent, while an increase

of rainfall is expected in the Tibetan plateau, where the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow rivers originate. These are the main rivers in the continent, supporting more than 3.5 billion people in countries such as Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and China.

However, China’s development five-year plans from 2021 to 2025 in- volves the damming of a large part of the rivers that originate in the Tibetan basin, which are mostly transboundary. This may rise controversy between the riparian countries, since China has not signed, nor does it recognize, multilateral agreements on the joint management of water resources in transboundary basins. Consequently, the future projection of scarcity and China’s monopoly over water in Asia, set up a concentration of strategic power of the country over the continent, which could lead to scalable conflicts.